China: PMI expectations and Lunar New Year caution – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO's report outlines expectations for January PMIs in China, with a consensus forecast indicating broad stabilization. Both manufacturing PMIs are expected to remain at or just above the neutral 50 mark, while the services PMI is anticipated to decrease but remain in expansion territory. The report also warns of potential distortions in Chinese data due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

PMI forecasts and data caution

"Consensus expectation is for a broad stabilisation, with both manufacturing PMIs (the official one and the alternative one from RatingDog) and the official non-manufacturing PMI staying at or just above the neutral 50 mark."

"General note of caution: Chinese data at the start of the year can show distortions related to the Lunar New Year holiday, for which the precise timing shifts each calendar year."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)