USD: Services strength and inflation signals support – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that the ISM services index rose to 53.8, its highest since late 2024, while the prices paid component climbed to 66.6, a strong leading indicator for US inflation. ADP private payrolls disappointed at 22k, but Treasury curves steepened, with 10‑year yields edging higher. The Dollar Index rose to 97.80 area, reflecting a broadly supportive US macro backdrop.

Dollar Index shows slight increase

"Meanwhile, the US data yesterday continued to paint a broadly positive picture. The ISM services print came in at 53.8 (vs. 53.5 expected), which is its highest level since late-2024."

"Moreover, the prices paid component ticked back up to 66.6 (vs. 65.0 expected), and that’s been a strong leading indicator for US inflation, which added to concern on that front."

"Meanwhile, the ADP’s report of private payrolls also came out weaker than expected in January at 22k (vs. 45k expected), with a slight downward revision to prior months."

"Treasury yields were mixed in response, with the 2yr yield falling -1.6bps amid the risk-off mood but 10yr (+1.0bps to 4.28%) and 30yr (+2.3bps to 4.92%) yields continuing to rise."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)