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16 Apr 2015
BoE could hike in Q4 2015 – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to analysts at Danske Bank, the Bank of England could start its hiking cycle in the last quarter of 2015.
Key Quotes
“We have postponed our expectations for the first Bank Rate hike three months from August 2015 to November 2015”.
“The main reasons behind our new call are that we have pushed our call for the first Fed hike to September, the appreciation of the GBP in recent months and slower growth in Q1 15”.
“We still believe that Bank of England will hike this year despite low inflation, as inflation is expected to pick up when the effect of the drop in food and energy prices starts to fade”.
“We expect wage growth to pick up further this year in step with the decline in labour market slack. However, future wage growth remains a downside risk to our call”.
“Along with our call, we have revised our yield forecast down some 10 to 20bp across the GBP curve and our 1- to 6-month EUR/GBP forecast slightly higher”.
Key Quotes
“We have postponed our expectations for the first Bank Rate hike three months from August 2015 to November 2015”.
“The main reasons behind our new call are that we have pushed our call for the first Fed hike to September, the appreciation of the GBP in recent months and slower growth in Q1 15”.
“We still believe that Bank of England will hike this year despite low inflation, as inflation is expected to pick up when the effect of the drop in food and energy prices starts to fade”.
“We expect wage growth to pick up further this year in step with the decline in labour market slack. However, future wage growth remains a downside risk to our call”.
“Along with our call, we have revised our yield forecast down some 10 to 20bp across the GBP curve and our 1- to 6-month EUR/GBP forecast slightly higher”.