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20 Apr 2015
NZD/USD could visit 0.74 in 1-m – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst Christin Tuxen at Danske Bank expects the pair to head towards the 0.74 area in 1-month view.
Key Quotes
“While we believe that RBNZ will stay out of the global currency war for now, we still think the NZD has more adjustment in store given the significant terms-of-trade shock suffered last year”.
“Crucially, the risk of a rate cut from the RBNZ could continue to weigh on the NZD near term as could the threat of the central bank intervening in the FX markets”.
“In addition, omnipresent USD strength is set to dominate on a 6M horizon ahead of the first Fed hike (which we expect to see in September)”.
“In combination, this suggest that NZD/USD will be in for more downside throughout our forecast horizon albeit NZD weakness should wear off on a 12M horizon. We have upped our 1M forecast slightly to 0.74 (from 0.73)”.
Key Quotes
“While we believe that RBNZ will stay out of the global currency war for now, we still think the NZD has more adjustment in store given the significant terms-of-trade shock suffered last year”.
“Crucially, the risk of a rate cut from the RBNZ could continue to weigh on the NZD near term as could the threat of the central bank intervening in the FX markets”.
“In addition, omnipresent USD strength is set to dominate on a 6M horizon ahead of the first Fed hike (which we expect to see in September)”.
“In combination, this suggest that NZD/USD will be in for more downside throughout our forecast horizon albeit NZD weakness should wear off on a 12M horizon. We have upped our 1M forecast slightly to 0.74 (from 0.73)”.