Canada: Anticipate an improved nominal trade balance – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, is anticipating an improved nominal Canada’s trade balance of -C$2.5bn in June from -C$3.3bn in both May and April.

Key Quotes

“In real terms, we are looking for ~$600mn improvement to a C$1.4bn surplus in June, with a partial reversal of recent weakness in real exports (down 9.1% over the last four months), supported by a still low Canadian Dollar.

For real non-energy exports, June represents a tough comparable on a YoY basis, as the category was up 4.9% m/m in June 2015, so an equivalent gain would be needed just to maintain the disappointing 0.7% y/y growth rate in May. We caution that the monthly trade release can be subject to sizeable back revisions.”