US: NFP likely to print 190k for July - TDS

July nonfarm payrolls will be the primary source for event risk and analysts at TD are above the market and looks for a 190k print (market: 180k), but they suggest that wage growth is more important for the Fed.

Key Quotes

“We look for strong job growth in private services and see risk of a sharp pullback in government jobs. The unemployment rate should edge lower to 4.3%, matching the cycle low, while year-ago wage growth should slip to 2.4% from 2.5% due to strong base effects, masking a 0.3% increase on the month (market: 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y).”

“International trade for June will be released simultaneously but will likely be ignored after last week’s advance goods trade report. The market consensus is for the deficit to narrow to $44.5bn from $46.5bn in May.”