China: CPI inflation expected to have increased in January – Standard Chartered

Chinese authorities are set to release inflation data for the month of January on 10 February and strategists at Standard Chartered Bank forecast a slight rise. USD/CNY is currently at 7.000 after a strong week for the dollar.

Key quotes

“China will publish January inflation data on 10 February. We expect CPI inflation to have edged up to 4.8% y/y from 4.5% in December.”

“Non-food CPI inflation may have increased slightly to 1.4% y/y on higher prices of fuel, medicine and daily necessities.”

“China will release monetary data on 10-15 February. M2 growth likely edged up 0.1ppt to 8.8% y/y in January. We expect loan growth to have eased 0.1ppt to 12.2%. New Chinese yuan (CNY) loans likely reached CNY 3.4tn, compared to CNY 3.2tn in January 2019. We expect total social financing (TSF) growth to have stayed at 10.7% y/y in January.”