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9 May 2013
Forex Flash: Despite RBNZ intervention, upside risks remain for Kiwi - ANZ
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Heightened awareness of intervention adds to downside risks to NZD/USD at the top of trading ranges, comments David Croy and Richard Yetsenga, Heads of Market/Global Research at ANZ.
However, the Strategists doubt "the RBNZ is willing or able to act significantly more vigorously, particularly given the limited resources on hand, the outsized volume of NZD trading (in relation to GDP), and the Finance Minister’s reluctance to speculate with taxpayer money."
They add that "anyone who is 'long' Kiwi needs to be cognisant that the RBNZ may take the opportunity to 'pepper' the market during periods when liquidity is low and the Kiwi is drifting; this is an important consideration for traders, and at the margin it does take some of the shine off the Kiwi, particularly when it gets extended."
"However, despite intervention is an added consideration, ANZ Strategists remain of the view that "excess liquidity, high interest rates, and the search for yield pose upside risks, which for now look to overwhelm the relatively minor downside risks associated with periodic episodes of small scale (and thus far covert) intervention..."
However, the Strategists doubt "the RBNZ is willing or able to act significantly more vigorously, particularly given the limited resources on hand, the outsized volume of NZD trading (in relation to GDP), and the Finance Minister’s reluctance to speculate with taxpayer money."
They add that "anyone who is 'long' Kiwi needs to be cognisant that the RBNZ may take the opportunity to 'pepper' the market during periods when liquidity is low and the Kiwi is drifting; this is an important consideration for traders, and at the margin it does take some of the shine off the Kiwi, particularly when it gets extended."
"However, despite intervention is an added consideration, ANZ Strategists remain of the view that "excess liquidity, high interest rates, and the search for yield pose upside risks, which for now look to overwhelm the relatively minor downside risks associated with periodic episodes of small scale (and thus far covert) intervention..."